Ukraine, whose energy system has been under constant Russian attack, will face power shortages and consumer outages in the summer months despite imports and strong output from solar power plants, the DiXi Group think tank forecast.
Russia has attacked Ukraine’s power generation and transmission systems throughout the war, severely damaging thermal power plants and forcing Kyiv to increase imports and resort to large-scale power cuts for consumers.
DiXi said in a statement that, with moderate temperatures and no further damage to the energy system, the power shortfall could reach 0.7 gigawatts at peak consumption, but could rise to 2.4 GW if temperatures increase significantly.
Annual maintenance at nuclear power units that are key to the energy system will complicate the situation further.
“As average daily temperatures rise, hourly power cuts will be unavoidable, and a shortage could occur even at night, when demand is at its lowest,” it stated.
In the event of high temperatures and further damage to the energy system, the shortfall would jump to 6.2 GW against demand of 15.8 GW, or about 40%.
In the winter of 2025-2026, when Russian missile attacks damaged more than half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity, blackouts in the capital Kyiv lasted as long as 14 to 16 hours.
